Entries in GDP (23)


Economy to Grow Slow But Steady in 2012, Survey Finds

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) -- Economists are becoming more confident that the United States will avoid another recession anytime soon, but they’re still cautious about this year’s rate of growth.

The latest quarterly survey from the National Association for Business Economics forecasts 2.4 percent growth this year.

“This is not gangbusters,” economist Richard DeKaser says of the NABE report.  “But it is solid and probably more important is that people are feeling more confident about their forecast.”

The survey says one big difference this year compared to 2011 is an improving jobs market.

“Businesses were able to get away without hiring because productivity was so strong,”  DeKaser said.  “That’s not the case anymore.  So we're seeing even moderate GDP gains translate into more jobs."

Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio


GDP Rose 2.8% in Fourth Quarter

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(WASHINGTON) -- The Commerce Department reported Friday that the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.8 percent pace in the last three months of 2011, slightly less than expected but an increase over the prior quarter.

Economists expected a growth rate of about 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter, in part because of strong holiday shopping and car sales.

Real GDP, the output of goods and services produced in the U.S., increased at a revised annual rate of 1.8 percent in the third quarter.  The Commerce Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the disappointing figure ahead of the holiday shopping season on Dec. 22.

Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio


Revised GDP Figures No Holiday Cheer for Retailers

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) -- Retailers are bracing for a tepid holiday sales season after the Commerce Department revised third-quarter GDP figures downward to 2 percent on Tuesday.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis had previously estimated that the economy grew at 2.5 percent for the quarter ended Sept. 31.  The updated figure is based on a more complete source data, the bureau said. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist with Janney Capital Markets, said the source of the downward revision in the third quarter was reduced inventory growth. LeBas said one driver of the fall in inventory was lower commodity prices in the third quarter. For example, lower oil prices lead to oil inventories that are worth less.

The other issue is that companies are stocking up less.

“Retailers are little cautious about the holiday season so they are less willing to stock up if they have a less good idea of sales,” he said. “From our perspective we think the holiday season is going to be better than what are rather dismal predictions. So we’ll have another good, not great, holiday.”

Growth in the third quarter also reflected increases in personal consumption and in non-residential fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending, the Commerce Department said. Imports decreased and exports accelerated, partly offset by a larger decrease in private inventory investment.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


GDP Grew 2.5 Percent in Third Quarter

Getty Images(WASHINGTON) -- The Commerce Department announced on Thursday that third-quarter Gross Domestic Product grew 2.5 percent, allaying fears that the economy is slipping into another recession.

Economists were expecting GDP to come in at 2.7 percent seasonally adjusted. In the first half of the year, the economy grew at an 0.9 percent pace, far too slow to generate any job growth. Unemployment has remained stubbornly high at over 9 percent.

The revised second-quarter GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, the Commerce Department announced at the end of September. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

The Labor Department also announced on Thursday that initial jobless claims declined 2,000 to 402,000.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


Global Stocks Tumble Amid Latest Chinese GDP Report

Hemera Technologies/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) -- Ahead of Tuesday's opening bell, a new cause for concern has popped up for global investors: China's economic growth has slowed down.

The country reported on Tuesday that its third quarter gross domestic product increased 9.1 percent from last year, but still fell short of its 9.5 percent rise in the previous quarter.

The news sent U.S. stock futures down Tuesday, a day after Wall Street experienced its biggest drop in two weeks.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 247 points, the Nasdaq fell 53 and the S&P 500 lost 24.

Overseas, European markets are trading lower on Tuesday and Asian ones closed with big losses.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took the biggest hit, plunging 4.23 percent, while China's Shanghai Composite dropped 2.33 percent.  Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.07 percent, Japan’s Nikkei index lost 1.55 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi shed 1.41 percent.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


GDP Increased at Annual Rate of 1.3%, Commerce Dept. Estimates

US Dept of Commerce(WASHINGTON) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called the nation’s unemployment situation a “national crisis” during the Q&A after a speech Wednesday night in Cleveland.

But, in some encouraging news, the Commerce Department this morning revised its second quarter estimate of GDP for the third time, saying it increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, instead of the previously thought 1 percent announced last month.

In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist with Janney Capital Markets, said the GDP figure was “moderately positive news,” but backward looking and therefore not significant to the markets this morning.

LeBas said the higher than previously stated GDP figure might refute those who believe the country is already in a recession, depending on how you define a recession.

“If you define a recession as high joblessness and ability to get jobs, then we are already in a recession. If you define recession as two quarters of negative growth, then no, we’re not in one,” he said. “I would argue that the distinction is useful for economists, but not useful for the average person.”

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


Economic Growth Nears Flatline: Just 1% in Second Quarter

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(WASHINGTON) -- The U.S. Department of Commerce on Friday estimated just a 1 percent upward tick in annual growth during the spring quarter, more evidence that the economic recovery remains slow to nearly none.

The government report shows the economy was barely expanding, even before this month’s stock market plunge. Economists worry that the Wall Street sell-off could cause consumers and business to pull back even more on spending and investment.

For some, Friday’s news is further evidence that the economy could be slipping back into recession, but John Ryding with RDQ Economics says the numbers aren’t so disappointing.

“This report has strong profits numbers and we tend not to go into a recession when corporations are making profits because that's an inducement to expand,” Ryding said.

“If we dig a little deeper and look at the strength of incomes and look at the strength of profits I think we find that the economy, while not strong, is nowhere near as weak as the headline GDP data suggests.”

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


Economic Growth Slows to Weakest Point Since Recession's End

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(WASHINGTON) -- In the first half of 2011 economic growth slowed to its weakest pace since the end of the recession, according to a report released Friday by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The government says the gross domestic product -- which measures the output of goods and services produced in the country -- expanded at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter, falling short of what economists had predicted.

First quarter growth was also revised down to just .4 percent.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


Gross Domestic Product Slows, Grew at 1.8% Pace in Q1

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(WASHINGTON) -- A new report shows the pace of the economic recovery slowed significantly during the first quarter. The gross domestic product report -- the first of three revisions -- showed the economy growing at a 1.8 percent annual pace from January to March. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the economy was growing at a 3.1 percent pace.

Economists said they expected the slow down, pointing to weather effects and a significant reduction in construction. The report shows the slowdown is a result of a big pullback in government spending, slower spending on construction and by consumers, and an increase in imports.

The second estimate will be out on May 26.

The report is available on the U.S. Commerce Department's website.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio


Fourth Quarter GDP Revised Lower to 2.8%

Photo Courtesy - Getty Images(WASHINGTON) -- The economy grew at a slower rate at the end of last year than previously estimated.

Output rose at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, less than the earlier figure of 3.2 percent.

Cuts in spending by state and local governments were bigger than expected and are one reason for the fall in output.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio

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