Entries in National Association for Business Economics (3)


Survey: US Economy Will Keep Growing in 2013

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) -- The U.S. economy should continue to grow this year and into the next, according to the latest outlook from the National Association for Business Economics.

"The NABE panelists are showing greater optimism in that they expect real GDP (gross domestic product) to grow by 2.4 percent from the fourth quarter of '12 to the fourth quarter of '13 and to grow by 3 percent by 2014," says Dr. Nayantara Hensel, Chair of the NABE Outlook Survey Committee.

But the 49 economists surveyed are worried fiscal uncertainty could slow down an otherwise growing economy.

"About 95 percent of the panelists were particularly concerned that real GDP this year is likely to be negatively affected by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. fiscal imbalances and the issues linked to the continuing resolution, sequestration and the debt ceiling," she says.

Meanwhile, the economic forecasters aren't so optimistic about what lies ahead for Europe's financial future.

"About a third of the panelists believe that Spain will require a larger bailout package in 2013 than was previously anticipated.  About a quarter of the panelists believe Italy will require a bailout package in 2013.  About a fifth of the panelists believe Ireland will require a second bailout package in 2013," says Hensel.

Copyright 2013 ABC News Radio


Economy to Grow Slow But Steady in 2012, Survey Finds

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(NEW YORK) -- Economists are becoming more confident that the United States will avoid another recession anytime soon, but they’re still cautious about this year’s rate of growth.

The latest quarterly survey from the National Association for Business Economics forecasts 2.4 percent growth this year.

“This is not gangbusters,” economist Richard DeKaser says of the NABE report.  “But it is solid and probably more important is that people are feeling more confident about their forecast.”

The survey says one big difference this year compared to 2011 is an improving jobs market.

“Businesses were able to get away without hiring because productivity was so strong,”  DeKaser said.  “That’s not the case anymore.  So we're seeing even moderate GDP gains translate into more jobs."

Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio


Economists Predict Slow US Growth Next Year

Comstock Images/Thinkstock(WASHINGTON) -- The U.S. economy will continue its slow growth next year and joblessness will remain high, according to a survey released Monday morning by the National Association for Business Economics.

“Economists responding to the latest NABE Outlook Survey expect moderate economic growth through 2012, with little likelihood of another recession or an outbreak of inflation,” said NABE Outlook Survey Chair Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the Consumer Electronics Association.

In the survey, those who responded expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, known as real GDP, to grow at 2.5 percent in the final quarter of 2011 and 2.4 percent in 2012.

Unemployment, the group said, is expected to decline slightly next year from its current 9 percent level.  Business spending and housing starts, on the other hand, are expected to continue to rise.
“Corporate profits and stock prices are predicted to strengthen.  But the panel remains concerned about debt-related issues in Europe,” the NABE said.

Here are the highlights from the report:

-- The NABE Outlook panel predicts moderate real GDP growth through year-end 2012.  A 2.5 percent pace is expected during the fourth quarter of 2011, followed by a 2.4 percent growth rate in 2012, with GDP in the second half of 2012 slightly stronger than in the first half.

-- The odds of a second recession are low.  Only two of 42 forecasters predicted a decline in real GDP over the near-term.  As a group, the panelists saw a recession as the least likely scenario.  Forecast confidence has improved, but remains low.

-- The NABE Outlook panel expects employment will improve, albeit very slowly.  Monthly job gains are expected to rise steadily over the forecast horizon, from an average of 100,000 during the fourth quarter of 2011 to 130,000 by the end of next year.  The jobless rate will decline from 9 percent to 8.9 percent in 2012, but despite a majority view of modest labor market improvement, NABE economists still identified “excessive unemployment” as their single greatest concern going forward.

-- Growth in consumer spending is expected to remain below trend.  Consumer spending is forecast to increase 2.1 percent this year -- the same consumer spending forecast as reported in the September survey.  The NABE Outlook Survey panel expects consumer spending to grow 2.1 percent in 2012.

-- Housing starts are expected to increase 10 percent in 2012.  The economists participating in the survey expect housing starts to reach 600,000 units in 2011, just slightly above the 2010 total and a small upward revision from the September Outlook Survey forecast.

-- Business spending remains a bright spot in the forecast.  NABE’s Outlook panel continues to forecast solid if not spectacular growth in spending on business equipment and software in both 2011 (up 10.5 percent) and 2012 (an additional increase of 8 percent).  The forecast for real spending on nonresidential structures improved from that reported in the September survey.  Panelists now envisage spending on structures to increase 4.6 percent in 2011 and 4.5 percent next year.  Industrial production is expected to increase 4 percent in 2011 and 3.3 percent in 2012.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio

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