Many people feel that if American Idol contestants were judged by sheer vocal talent alone, Jessica Sanchez would be the one crying with joy while standing under a shower of confetti Wednesday night. But that's usually not the deciding factor -- and that's why one American Idol expert feels that Jessica has no chance of taking home the Idol crown.
Richard Rushfield, author of the book American Idol: The Untold Story, points out that for the past four years, America has handed the Idol title to a cute dude who plays the guitar -- a trend that Idol pundits call the "White guy with a guitar" or "WGWG" factor. According to Rushfield, since America crowned David Cook, Kris Allen, Lee DeWyze and Scotty McCreery, there's no reason why they won't do it again, which means a Phil Phillips victory.
"Jessica cannot win," he says definitively. "Unless there is some sort of act of God comes down, the cute white boy dynasty seems well entrenched. Any smart betting person would have to guess that having done this four times, they will do it a fifth."
But why? The Idol audience has crowned female contestants before; and at least two of those female winners -- Carrie Underwood and Kelly Clarkson -- have been among the Idol winners with the most successful post-Idol careers.
But Idol voters aren't thinking like record producers, according to Rushfield. "You have this alliance between young girls and grandmas and they see it, not necessarily as a contest to create a pop star competing on the contemporary radio, but as...who's the nicest guy in a popularity contest," he says, "And that has led to this dynasty of four, and possibly now five, consecutive, affable, very nice, good-looking white boys."
We'll find out if Rushfield is right or if Jessica can buck the trend when American Idol's big finale airs Wednesday night on Fox.
Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio