(SANTA CRUZ, Calif.) -- Police in Santa Cruz, California are using a complicated math equation to predict where crimes will likely happen in an effort to better utilize their shrinking force to stop the bad guys in their tracks.
"Crime is not random," said Zach Friend, the department's crime analyst. "You can actually predict the kinds of things that people will do."
The computer program utilizing this algorithm is at the center of a six-month effort called "predictive policing" that the department started in July. Eight years of crime data were first entered into the program so it could track and pinpoint crimes.
Now, it spits out 10 detailed maps daily complete with "hot spots" -- a forecast of where new crimes are most likely to occur.
A specific crime is broken down to the two most likely time periods it will probably occur -- say, noon to 1 p.m. or 4 to 5 p.m. -- so if an officer is working during that time, he or she knows to check that area.
In the last decade, Santa Cruz saw a 20 percent reduction in its staff but a 30 percent increase in calls for service, according to Friend.
"As we continue budget cuts, as we are facing less and less police officers on the streets, we need to leverage technology to become more effective and efficient," he said.
Officer Bernie Escalante said that with fewer officers on the streets in Santa Cruz, the technology helped fill the gap.
"They give you a map and a square [a hot spot]," he said. "It's very easy to understand [and] hard to screw it up."
And it seems to be working. Friend said that since the program's launch, the algorithm correctly predicted 40 percent of crimes and led to five arrests. In the last six weeks, Santa Cruz also saw a reduction in property crimes including car and home burglaries. Police said burglaries were down 27 percent in July compared to the same month last year.
As reported by The New York Times, the program was developed by a group of researchers, including two mathematicians and an anthropologist, and based on an earthquake aftershock model.
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