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Entries in Electoral College (3)

Friday
Jul062012

ABC’s Latest Electoral College Estimates: Obama Vulnerable in Midwest

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images/iStockphoto/ThinkstockBy AMY WALTER, ABC News Political Director

(WASHINGTON) -- As President Obama wraps up a bus-tour through the nation’s heartland, the latest ABC News Electoral College estimate shows new vulnerability for him in the Midwest.

Recent polling shows a closer-than-expected contest in Michigan, a traditionally Democratic stronghold. Both Republicans and Democrats also see Wisconsin, a state Obama easily carried in 2008, as much more competitive this year. There are some Republicans who expect to see Minnesota in play.

See an interactive map here to understand how swing states could change November’s result.

Overall, however, President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the race to the 270 Electoral Votes needed to capture the White House. We list 247 electoral votes as either “leaning” or “solid” for Obama, compared to 191 for Romney.

Of the 100 electoral votes that we consider toss-ups, over half (57) are from fast-growing states that are demographically diverse — such as Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. That should help Obama, who continues to poll well among Latino and African-American voters. Of those toss-ups, North Carolina will be the toughest for Obama to hold, while Colorado and Virginia will probably be the toughest for Romney to pick up.

Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio

Friday
May112012

Romney’s Road to 270 Relies on ‘Hawkeye Granite’ or ‘Southern Sweep’

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images(WASHINGTON) -- Eager to debunk the conventional wisdom that suggests that the Obama campaign has an easier path to an electoral college victory than they do, Romney campaign officials briefed reporters on Thursday on the many ways they can reach the magic 270 number.

With names like the “3-2-1″ plan, the “Southern Sweep” and “Hawkeye Granite,” the Romney campaign argues that it can lose some traditionally “red” states and still win the White House.

In the “4 + 1″ plan, for example, Romney would need to carry four states -- Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio -- but just one of these former “red” states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa.  A win in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire -- both of which went “blue” in 2004 -- plus the original four would also work.

The “3-2-1″ map requires Romney to win three traditionally Republican states -- Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana; pick up two states carried by George W. Bush in 2000/2004 -- Florida and Ohio; and then pick up just one of eight states, many of which were considered Republican before 2008 -- New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Then there's the I-80 scenario.  In it, Romney would need to hold onto to all the states carried by John McCain -- those along Interstate 80: Nevada, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, and then North Carolina and Florida.  Colorado is probably the toughest of those states for Romney to carry.  If he lost Colorado, he’d need to carry Virginia.

The Romney campaign continues to be optimistic about its chances in traditionally blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  In Wisconsin, for example, it was heartened by the impressive GOP turnout in Tuesday’s primary.  And, in Pennsylvania, Romney officials argue, Obama polarizes voters in traditionally red Western Pennsylvania and the “T” (the middle part of the state between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh). 

There is also a scenario that has Romney winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which looks like a stretch at this point.

For now, however, the campaign map can really be distilled down to eight states, all of which were carried by Obama in 2008 and seven of which were carried by George W. Bush in 2004: Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire. 

No candidate has to win all of these states.  But, at the end of the day, Obama just needs to win one of these, while Romney needs to win at least five.

Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio

Tuesday
Dec212010

Census Moves 12 Congressional Districts

Photo Courtesy - Alex Wong/Getty Images(WASHINGTON) -- Census data released Tuesday led to a seismic shift in the allocation of Congressional seats, with Republican-leaning Sun Belt states gaining seats and Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states losing.

Every 10 years, after the census gauges population shifts, government officials divvy up the nation's 435 seats in Congress. This year's census data resulted in a shift of 12 seats across 18 different states.

As demographic and redistricting experts predicted, Texas was the big winner, picking up four new House seats and capping seven consecutive decades of gains. The state now has a total of 36 seats.

Florida was second with two more seats, with the smaller Sun Belt states of Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona, Utah and Nevada picking up one each, and northwest Washington grabbing one as well. All but one of the gaining states have a Republican governor, implying long-term damage to Democrats for future elections.

The biggest losers were in the Northeast and Midwest, with New York and Ohio losing two seats each. Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania each lost one.

The congressional gains also mean a change in Electoral College votes. If the 2008 Presidential election had been held with the newly reapportioned Congress, President Obama would have gotten six fewer electoral votes; the growth was primarily in states that favored his opponent, John McCain.

Copyright 2010 ABC News Radio







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