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Entries in Electoral Votes (2)

Friday
May112012

Romney’s Road to 270 Relies on ‘Hawkeye Granite’ or ‘Southern Sweep’

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images(WASHINGTON) -- Eager to debunk the conventional wisdom that suggests that the Obama campaign has an easier path to an electoral college victory than they do, Romney campaign officials briefed reporters on Thursday on the many ways they can reach the magic 270 number.

With names like the “3-2-1″ plan, the “Southern Sweep” and “Hawkeye Granite,” the Romney campaign argues that it can lose some traditionally “red” states and still win the White House.

In the “4 + 1″ plan, for example, Romney would need to carry four states -- Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Ohio -- but just one of these former “red” states: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa.  A win in Pennsylvania or New Hampshire -- both of which went “blue” in 2004 -- plus the original four would also work.

The “3-2-1″ map requires Romney to win three traditionally Republican states -- Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana; pick up two states carried by George W. Bush in 2000/2004 -- Florida and Ohio; and then pick up just one of eight states, many of which were considered Republican before 2008 -- New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Then there's the I-80 scenario.  In it, Romney would need to hold onto to all the states carried by John McCain -- those along Interstate 80: Nevada, Indiana, Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, and then North Carolina and Florida.  Colorado is probably the toughest of those states for Romney to carry.  If he lost Colorado, he’d need to carry Virginia.

The Romney campaign continues to be optimistic about its chances in traditionally blue states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  In Wisconsin, for example, it was heartened by the impressive GOP turnout in Tuesday’s primary.  And, in Pennsylvania, Romney officials argue, Obama polarizes voters in traditionally red Western Pennsylvania and the “T” (the middle part of the state between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh). 

There is also a scenario that has Romney winning Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which looks like a stretch at this point.

For now, however, the campaign map can really be distilled down to eight states, all of which were carried by Obama in 2008 and seven of which were carried by George W. Bush in 2004: Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and New Hampshire. 

No candidate has to win all of these states.  But, at the end of the day, Obama just needs to win one of these, while Romney needs to win at least five.

Copyright 2012 ABC News Radio

Monday
Sep192011

Dems, GOP Clash Over Proposed Changes to PA Electoral Plan

Stockbyte/Thinkstock(HARRISBURG, Pa.) -- Republican lawmakers in Pennsylvania could drastically alter the political map ahead of next year’s presidential election, awarding their electoral votes by Congressional district instead of as a state.

The legislation proposed by state Senate leader Dominic Pileggi is supported by Republican Gov. Tom Corbett and would be more likely to hurt President Obama’s chances of reelection than a Republican candidate’s.  But it is angering politicians on both sides of the aisle in Pennsylvania and nationally.

The state is always a battleground, despite the fact that a Republican hasn’t won the presidential election there since 1988.

The proposal would switch the awarding of electoral votes from the current winner-takes-all system to a system that would award the electoral college votes to the winner of each Congressional district.  The only other states that have this process are Maine and Nebraska, but with Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes, this could have a significant impact on the 2012 election.

State Sen. Daylin Leach is leading the charge from the state Democratic side to kill the legislation.  He calls the legislation an “obscene partisan power grab.”

“We’ve always respected the vision of the founders, the electoral process for 224 years,” Leach told ABC News.  “Suddenly, we have a different type of Republican in office now willing to essentially and, in my view, desecrate that history and make Pennsylvania an irrelevant state in the presidential election, which would cost us money, cost us prestige, and cost us influence with one purpose: to rig the election so their guy wins.”

Leach accused Corbett and the Republicans backing the legislation of wanting to “fix the election like they do in third-world countries.”

And it’s far from just Democrats who are upset about the legislation.  The chairman of the state GOP is against it, and so are national Republicans.  They believe the change in systems will mean that Democrats will move money and resources from districts they don’t need to worry about, like Philadelphia, to suburban districts that could be more in play.

The governor’s office is standing firm, though, with spokesman Kevin Harley saying Democratic claims that the legislation is a partisan political move are “blatantly false.”

“The governor simply believes from a policy point of view this is the fairest way to distribute Pennsylvania’s electoral college vote,” Harley said.

Corbett also rejects claims from both Republicans and Democrats that the new system will make the once hard fought battleground state irrelevant.  Harley said the governor believes it will make the state “even more competitive.”

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio







ABC News Radio