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Entries in Langer Associates (2)

Monday
Oct032011

Poll: Majority Expects Obama to Lose Re-election

Official White House Photo by Pete Souza(NEW YORK) -- A majority of Americans expect Barack Obama to be a one-term president, an assessment on which, in past elections, the public has more often been right than wrong.

Just 37 percent of people in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll say they expect Obama to win re-election in November 2012; 55 percent instead expect the eventual Republican nominee to win.

It’s a challenging finding for the president because expectations can fuel voter enthusiasm -- precisely the ingredient that led the GOP to its broad success in the 2010 midterms, when charged-up conservatives turned out while dispirited Democrats stayed home.

Democrats do expect Obama to win, but they say so only by 58-33 percent -- a comparatively tepid vote of confidence within his own party. Republicans, by contrast, smell victory by a vast 83-13 percent. Independents by 54-36 percent expect the Republican candidate to beat Obama.

This poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds that the divisions among ideological groups tell a similar story. Conservatives are far more confident about the Republican nominee than are liberals about Obama, and moderates, albeit narrowly, are more likely to expect the challenger to win.

The poll also notes Americans who lack a college degree think, by 57-35 points, that the Republican nominee will beat Obama; those with a college degree think so too, but by a narrower 49-41 percent.

The public does not always nail such prognostications, and with the election more than a year away -- and the Republican contest still highly unsettled -- much can change. In a New York Times/CBS News poll in March 1992, 76 percent expected President George H.W. Bush to beat Bill Clinton. But Bush quickly lost support as the flush of success in the first Gulf War faded and economic discontent took hold, and Clinton unseated him.

Nonetheless, in November 1999, also in a Times/CBS poll, the public by 52-32 percent expected the eventual Republican nominee to beat the Democrat, as he did; in September 2003, the public by 50-35 percent expected Bush 43 to be re-elected, as he was; and in March 2007, 61 percent correctly expected the eventual Democratic nominee to beat the eventual GOP nominee.

Copyright 2011 ABC News Radio

Monday
Dec132010

Poll: Broad Backing for Obama-GOP Tax Deal

Photo Courtesy - Getty Images(NEW YORK) -- With decisive votes in Congress pending, Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll broadly support the tax-and-benefits deal forged by President Obama and Republican leaders of Congress.

Sixty-nine percent support the package overall, far outnumbering the 29 percent opposed. When given arguments that it will add as much as $900 billion to the federal budget deficit, 62 percent continue to support the measure, with opposition inching up to only 34 percent.

While support is broad, its tepid nature in part reflects skepticism that the changes will do much to improve the long-troubled economy. Just 36 percent think it will help, including only nine percent who think it will help a great deal. That leaves six in 10 who either don't think the deal will have much economic impact at all, or fear it'll make things worse. Strong support for the package is higher among those who think it'll improve the economy.

Some individual elements draw sharply partisan views. Support for extending the Bush-era tax cuts for all Americans, including the wealthy, ranges from 85 percent of Republicans to just 38 percent of Democrats. On the other hand Democrats are 33 points more apt than Republicans to favor extending unemployment benefits, 88 percent vs. 55 percent.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was produced by Langer Associates. The survey was conducted among a random national sample of 1,001 adults. Results have a 3.5-point error margin.

Copyright 2010 ABC News Radio







ABC News Radio